Holding NIA's 'AI agents' prediction against six months of reality. The multi-agent standards converged faster than predicted (🔵); the digital employee arrived as a noun but shed the adjective 'autonomous' (🟢). ROI failure rates and the governance gap were nowhere in the forecast (⚪).
Proof of personhood and AI agent identity are two layers of the same track. World ID, Passkey, DID adoption curves + Defakto, t54, Indicio funding + payment network entries - the entire identity track in one piece.
The builder layer compresses vertically as hyperscalers and frontier labs squeeze from above and below. Value shifts to custom ops assembly and the defensibility conditions above it.
Holding NIA's 'AI agents' prediction against six months of reality. The multi-agent standards converged faster than predicted (🔵); the digital employee arrived as a noun but shed the adjective 'autonomous' (🟢). ROI failure rates and the governance gap were nowhere in the forecast (⚪).
Proof of personhood and AI agent identity are two layers of the same track. World ID, Passkey, DID adoption curves + Defakto, t54, Indicio funding + payment network entries - the entire identity track in one piece.
The builder layer compresses vertically as hyperscalers and frontier labs squeeze from above and below. Value shifts to custom ops assembly and the defensibility conditions above it.
Code costs trending to zero won't kill no-code. The cost of verifying, reproducing, and auditing outputs rises at the same time. The two stack as layers rather than competing as alternatives.
The canvas commoditizes, but the builder market explodes. What ends is not the builder - it's the premise that the canvas is where value lives.
Three Anthropic announcements across 96 hours in April 2026, broken down into Access, Capability, and Execution layers to reveal a coordinated vertical integration strategy.
Cross-comparing Lex Fridman #490 (2/1) and Noh Jungseok EP91 (3/21) to trace how perceptions of AI agents shifted before and after OpenClaw