Strategy & Economics
AI Infrastructure Hegemony Wasn't Decided at the Chip - NIA Trend 1, Revisited at the Half-Year
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.