Holding NIA's 'physical AI' prediction against six months of reality. Hardware and AI convergence did proceed (🟢), but labor replacement and maximized productivity never showed up in the macro numbers (🟡). The bottleneck moving from hardware to data and unit economics, and value flowing to the software layer, were in neither prediction (⚪).
Holding NIA's 'AI agents' prediction against six months of reality. The multi-agent standards converged faster than predicted (🔵); the digital employee arrived as a noun but shed the adjective 'autonomous' (🟢). ROI failure rates and the governance gap were nowhere in the forecast (⚪).
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Holding NIA's 'physical AI' prediction against six months of reality. Hardware and AI convergence did proceed (🟢), but labor replacement and maximized productivity never showed up in the macro numbers (🟡). The bottleneck moving from hardware to data and unit economics, and value flowing to the software layer, were in neither prediction (⚪).
Holding NIA's 'AI agents' prediction against six months of reality. The multi-agent standards converged faster than predicted (🔵); the digital employee arrived as a noun but shed the adjective 'autonomous' (🟢). ROI failure rates and the governance gap were nowhere in the forecast (⚪).
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Reads NIA's 2026 Top 12 trends report on its own terms - identity, structure, derivation method - and flags the backward-looking nature of text-network analysis. Series entry post.